Freight market weekly, Week 39 2026

The week in one line: the SCFI composite closed at 3,686.62 pts (-0.03%), ending an eight-week rally, while WCI slipped 1% to $4,468/FEU. The average is flat; the lanes are not — that divergence is the story.

Rate snapshot

SCFI composite: 3,686.62 pts (-0.03%) — the eight-week rally has ended and the market is consolidating at a high level, with sharp lane divergence: Persian Gulf and SE Asia still climbing while North Europe falls deeper and South America drops hard from highs. Drewry WCI composite: $4,468/FEU (-1%) (24 September), led by Asia–Europe declines.

Sources: Shanghai Shipping Exchange (24 September reading); Drewry WCI (24 September). USWC/USEC in USD/FEU, others USD/TEU. CCFI composite 1,917.68 pts.

What moved this week

1. The SCFI rally ends at eight weeks — the real test comes after Golden Week

The 24 September SCFI printed 3,686.62 pts (-0.03%), closing an eight-week winning streak. USWC $7,463/FEU (-1.28%) and USEC $10,497/FEU (-0.77%) eased from highs; North Europe $2,313/TEU (-4.61%) led declines on soft demand and new capacity; South America $6,530/TEU (-15.2%) lost momentum; Persian Gulf $6,586/TEU and SE Asia $1,166/TEU moved against the trend. WCI printed $4,468/FEU (-1%), led by Asia–Europe.

Action: for cargo not shipped before the holiday, plan for sailings after 8 October; lock US-bound space and rates before the 1 October surcharges take effect; batch-book Europe to catch the downward window; book SE Asia 1–2 weeks ahead.

2. Middle East risk repricing — Hormuz quasi-shutdown vs Red Sea return

Since the US–Iran escalation in February, Hormuz transits have stayed restricted and Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds about 30% to Asia–Europe voyages; Saudi Arabia's Red Sea backup via Yanbu once reached 4 million bbl/day of crude loadings, and now the Bab-el-Mandeb gate is under threat. Brent touched $113/bbl. On rates, the Persian Gulf lane leads gains at $6,586/TEU; meanwhile Maersk's MECL service is confirmed back on Suez and carriers are reported to be speeding Asia–Europe sailings with risky backhauls — rerouting and return are in a tug of war.

Action: for must-ship Middle East cargo, confirm carrier acceptance scope, routing and war-risk terms per shipment, and keep a 1–2 week buffer; never promise delivery dates based on discounted transit times; watch how a Suez return could hit Europe rates again.

3. The Q4 surcharge window opens — CMA CGM US PSS lands 1 October

CMA CGM announced a PSS from Far East and Indian Subcontinent to the US effective 1 October: $3,600/box for 20' and $4,000/box for 40', until further notice, alongside a new GRI; peak-season surcharges from multiple carriers take effect across trades between 21 September and 15 October, lifting Q4 landed costs.

Action: price Q4 orders per destination + lane + carrier including surcharges; confirm whether the "pricing date" is stuffing day or sailing day to avoid back-charges on September rates; include last-mile fees in DDP/DDU quotes.

Surcharge updates

Sources: CMA CGM customer notices (via AJOT, 9 September), cma-cgm.com notice pages, trade press (21 September).

Industry updates

• Biggest monthly reliability drop since 2021: Sea-Intelligence measured July global schedule reliability at 56.4% (-6.1pp m/m), driven by Asian port congestion and typhoons; Gemini still held 89.5%.
• Suez return gaining ground: Maersk's MECL service is confirmed back via Suez; trade press reports risky backhauls speeding Asia–Europe sailings — normalization is approaching, with security risk the key variable.
• Middle East tension persists: Hormuz restricted, the Yanbu backup under pressure, Bab-el-Mandeb threatened, Brent at $113/bbl — the Persian Gulf lane carries a geopolitical premium.
• Europe capacity pressure: soft demand plus newbuild deliveries point to a continued slide on North Europe ($2,313/TEU, -4.61%).

Market outlook

US lanes: the pre-holiday rush is ending; spot rates eased from highs (USWC -1.28%/USEC -0.77%) while 1 October surcharges lift all-in costs — a pullback from highs is likely after the holiday; watch mid-to-late October.

Europe lanes: capacity growth and soft demand deepened the fall to $2,313/TEU (-4.61%); expect a weak tone — a relatively good window to batch-lock rates.

Middle East: the geopolitical premium pushes $6,586/TEU higher, but risk also curbs demand — confirm war-risk and routing per shipment and keep buffers.

Intra-Asia: SE Asia $1,166/TEU keeps climbing on congestion and blank sailings; stay firm short term; book 1–2 weeks ahead.

South America/Oceania: South America $6,530/TEU (-15.2%) collapsed from highs with little momentum — wait rather than chase; Oceania as usual.

Sources & disclaimer

Sources: Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SCFI/CCFI, 24 September), Drewry WCI (24 September), Sea-Intelligence (July reliability), CMA CGM customer notices (via AJOT), Sina Finance, NetEase, Commercial Times and other public reports (data as of 2026-09-24, Middle East updated to 28 September). This report is for reference only and does not constitute a booking or trading commitment. Rates and schedules are subject to per-shipment live quotes. Market views involve risk; decide prudently.